By: Francis Uldric San Juan, Nathaniel Luis A. Mendoza
The 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) is set against an ominous backdrop: eleven years after countries committed to limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the Paris Agreement, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released a report indicating that the threshold will be breached in the coming years. The publication further revealed that existing climate pledges, even if fully implemented, are insufficient to limit the overshoot. While this report urges negotiators to act with utmost urgency, it only confirms what local communities have already known and experienced: the impacts of the climate crisis are already being felt. Negotiations in Antalya must therefore heed the warning of the UNEP report and scientific assessments, while highlighting the lived experiences of communities.
COP31 is also set to take place amidst a precarious geopolitical landscape. The US-Israel War on Iran has heavily disrupted the global trade of oil, consequently revealing the vulnerability of countries and industries amid rising fuel prices. While the war has spurred investment in renewable energy production, the conflict has also exacerbated climate vulnerabilities of Gulf nations, as damages to critical infrastructure such as desalination plants and energy have been severe. This is also the first COP since the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement has formally taken effect, thereby demonstrating the precarity of multilateralism.
What, then, can we expect from COP31? As state delegates, civil society representatives, scientists, and private actors gather in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, there is another opportunity to advance climate action and pursue climate justice.
Understanding the Basics of International Climate Negotiations: UNFCCC and COP
Adopted in 1992 as the foundational international treaty to tackle and address anthropogenic climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is a landmark recognition of the risks of a warming world. The Convention put forward several principles that have since directed climate action: not only did it declare climate change as a global threat that requires international cooperation, but it also introduced the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, which recognizes the varying circumstances of each State Party in contributing to and responding to climate change.
The Convention operates through the Conference of the Parties (COP), which serves as the primary decision-making body in drafting decisions and tracking progress related to the principles of the Convention. These annual gatherings have produced landmark texts such as the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the Paris Agreement in 2015. Annual COPs also facilitate progress reviews through greenhouse gas inventories, transparency mechanisms, and the Global Stocktake, and pursue negotiations on workstreams such as Loss and Damage and Just Transition. Engagement in COPs, however, is not limited to State Parties and government representatives. Civil society organizations participate in these gatherings to monitor negotiations on key texts and advance advocacies, thereby playing a vital role in pursuing climate justice. The private sector also takes part in COPs to establish partnerships and direct investment flows, on the one hand, and influence climate policies and advance their interests, on the other. Fossil fuel companies, for example, are reported to “undermine” climate negotiations, as thousands of fossil fuel lobbyists attend these negotiations.
Assessing the Current Standing: From Belém to Antalya
Negotiations in Antalya are expected to build on the progress of preceding COPs. COP30, held in Belém, Brazil, produced contrasting results: observers lauded the Mutirão Decision, which reaffirmed the commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation, and the completion of the Third Review of the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM), which guided the production of a State of Loss and Damage Report. However, although COP30 established the Global Implementation Accelerator to enhance implementation of climate ambition across key sectors, there are concerns that the voluntary nature of the mechanism may inadequately match the urgency of the climate crisis. Critics have also noted the absence of any significant outcome on Loss and Damage (L&D) finance, as well as the weak language on transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF).
COP31 thus inherits the thrust of moving from mere discourse and negotiations to tangible implementation and monitoring of progress. With countless mechanisms and frameworks across the various UNFCCC workstreams, we ask, “What results have actually been achieved?”
Mitigation (Articles 3 and 4 of the Paris Agreement). As reducing greenhouse gas emissions is a key pillar of climate action, mitigation negotiations are expected to center on the Sharm el-Sheikh Mitigation Work Programme (MWP), particularly whether State Parties intend to continue this mechanism beyond 2026, and the third round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Established at COP27 to “urgently scale up mitigation ambition and implementation in this critical decade,” the MWP is scheduled to expire in 2026. Recognizing the central function of the work programme, however, Parties have already explored how it can be extended through and beyond 2030 to support NDC cycles and mitigation implementation. Discussions on the MWP will therefore be a central feature of COP31, especially as countries are also asked to update their NDCs in 2026.
Adaptation (Article 7 of the Paris Agreement). Negotiations on adaptation will build on the 59 indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) established at COP30, particularly exploring how these may be operationalized and financed through adaptation mechanisms. COP31 discussions follow “contentious negotiations” in the 2026 June Climate Meetings, wherein the operationalization of adaptation finance resulted in much debate over the classification of countries as either “developed” or developing.”
Loss and Damage (Article 8 of the Paris Agreement). With the UNEP report projecting a climate overshoot in the coming years, L&D negotiations may gain prominence because of current and projected impacts of climate hazards. As this workstream has grown to comprise three interconnected mechanisms – the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM), the Santiago Network, and the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) – these will inform negotiations related to L&D. State Parties are also expected to review the joint annual report of the WIM Executive Committee and the Santiago Network, while also tackling how FRLD resources can be replenished.
Enhanced Transparency Framework and the Global Stocktake (Articles 13 and 14 of the Paris Agreement). Climate reporting mechanisms are central to COP31: Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) must be submitted within the year, while the three-year cycle for the Second Global Stocktake (GST2) will commence. As BTRs are a key component of the Enhanced Transparency Framework, COP31 may facilitate exchanges on best practices and key learnings on the preparation of these documents. The Facilitative Multilateral Consultative Process (FMCP) will also occur in Antalya, wherein State Parties will exchange feedback on their transparency documents. Moreover, as GST2 is expected to highlight implementation assessments, COP31 is critical in identifying technical assessment guide questions and formally opens the call for inputs from various stakeholders.
Just Transition. Following the creation of the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) at COP30, negotiations in Antalya will center on how the JTWP will be operationalized and financed. Similar to the other workstreams, negotiators are challenged to translate mechanisms into tangible outputs through clear and thorough implementation plans. With much interest from various stakeholders, various groups will follow this workstream and present pathways in its implementation: the Local Governments and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) Constituency emphasizes the role of multilevel governance mechanisms; Client Earth contextualizes JT in the context of the energy transition; and the International Labour Organization and the European Commission dedicate a Pavilion to focus on Just Transition.
Taku Pakasoa Declaration. As the 31st Conference of the Parties is uniquely co-hosted by the governments of Türkiye and Australia, it has also issued a pre-COP declaration on unity, particularly “calling on the world to unite behind those on the front lines of the climate crisis.” The statement particularly highlights the leadership and experiences of Pacific Island countries and emphasizes the “ocean-climate nexus” in climate action. Through this declaration, it is expected that Pacific Island nations and Small Island Developing States may take a leading role in Antalya.
Tagpuan: The Philippines at COP31
COP31 carries immediate implications for the Philippines as the country faces an intensifying El Niño. According to DOST-PAGASA’s advisory, the ongoing strong El Niño is projected to intensify into a very strong event and persist through the first half of 2027, increasing the risks of below-normal rainfall, drought, water shortages, and dry spells. The country also enters Antalya with its updated 2026 NDC, a 75% cumulative emissions reduction and avoidance target relative to projected emissions for 2025-2035, which comprises 7% unconditional and 68% conditional on international support.
To bring Philippine experiences into global discussions, the Climate Change Commission has launched the Philippine Hub at COP31 entitled Tagpuan. From November 9 to 20, the Hub will feature thematic engagements showing national climate action, resilience approaches, and policy priorities, with participation from the Philippine delegation, civil society, academia, and the private sector.
Connecting Community Engagement and International Negotiations: Klima Center at COP31
For Klima Center, participation in the UNFCCC is closely linked with our engagement with communities and our work on grassroots advocacies. Climate justice must be rooted in the lived experiences of localities, mediated by national legislation, and supported by international mechanisms. With this broad scope, we have provided technical inputs at the international level, while simultaneously connecting these with national and local policies and experiences. In Loss and Damage negotiations, for example, Klima Center participated as an expert in a side event at COP27, while also providing an analysis on the Philippine People’s Survival Fund and the FRLD. We have also submitted recommendations for the operationalization of the Just Transition Mechanism to the UNFCCC, while also situating JT in the context of Philippine Agriculture.
The Manila Observatory will be deploying one of its largest delegations in Antalya to monitor workstreams on L&D, JT, and Climate Transparency, among many others. By organizing several side events and monitoring climate negotiations, the team seeks to advance climate justice by connecting community engagement and international negotiations.
Pursuing Climate Justice in an Overshoot World: The Stakes of COP31
An overshoot world is projected to exacerbate physical hazards and worsen existing vulnerabilities, thereby impacting communities who have least contributed to the climate crisis. As immense losses and damages are expected to be incurred in a post-1.5°C world, negotiations in Antalya must tackle all dimensions of climate action – from mitigation, adaptation, and L&D to climate finance, Just Transition, and transparency L&D – to pursue climate justice with renewed urgency.