Generating and communicating future climate projections from multiple models to inform resilience building in the Philippines: a talk by Dr. Joseph Daron (UK Met Office) at Manila Observatory

By Ateneo Physics News

“Generating and communicating future climate projections from multiple models to inform resilience building in the Philippines,” by Dr Joseph Daron, Science Manager of the International Climate Services Team, UK Met Office. The talk was held on 5 February 2018, 1:00-2:00 p.m. at Heyden Hall, Manila Observatory.


Future climate model projections are an important source of information to guide long-term planning decisions. To meet the needs of society, the climate science and services community is producing an increasing volume of future climate data using a range of modelling approaches. However, there is a significant methodological challenge in how to best compare and combine information produced using different models and methods. Based on the findings of a recently submitted paper, written with colleagues in the Philippines, this talk will discuss the conceptual and practical challenges in distilling information from multiple sources (e.g. global models, dynamical and statistical regional downscaling) and communicating it to different audiences. The talk will also discuss findings from a collaboration with PAGASA to investigate future changes to typhoon activity in the Philippines. The simulations, using different models and spatial resolutions, show a range of possible future changes, with a tendency for fewer but slightly more intense tropical cyclones by the mid-21st century. Finally, the talk will reflect on the broader implications of this work, and related Met Office projects and collaborations in other regions, in the strategic development of climate services to support society in addressing the challenges of climate variability and change.

About the Speaker:

Dr. Joseph Daron is a Science Manager in the International Climate Services team at the UK Met Office. He leads a small team to deliver and develop climate services in Africa and Asia. Joe graduated in 2007 with a degree in meteorology from the University of Reading, with a further year in the School of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. He obtained a PhD from the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2012. His thesis, titled “Examining the decision-relevance of climate model information for the insurance industry” explored fundamental concepts of predictability in the climate system, particularly in relation to the use of initial condition climate model ensembles, as well as the application of climate projections to the insurance sector. He then worked for three years as a postdoctoral research fellow in the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town in South Africa. His research focused on the development of climate services and the interpretation of climate information by decision makers involved in climate change adaptation in Africa. He joined the Met Office in January 2015 and since then has worked on a range of projects, including a DFID funded project to inform resilience building to typhoons in the Philippines and a DFID/NERC funded project focusing on climate risks in southern African cities. He is currently the scientific lead on a project to integrate seasonal forecasts into adaptive social protection programmes in the Sahel in West Africa.

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